![]() would see anywhere from tens of thousands to more than two million deaths. Early in the pandemic, as public health experts urged citizens to take the novel coronavirus seriously, they cited predictions estimating that the U.S. But looking to models for absolute answers comes with its own set of challenges. Dealing with Uncertaintyįor months, health care systems and state and local policy makers have been working with modelers to help anticipate hospital needs the IHME models were originally developed for this purpose. Their findings suggest that universal mask use (defined as 95 percent of people wearing face coverings in public), combined with states shutting down if they exceed eight deaths per day per million people, “could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states.” Compared with a scenario in which 49 percent of people wear masks in public, and shutdowns resume at the above threshold for deaths, the authors estimated that universal masking could save nearly 130,000 lives between Septemand the end of February 2021. In a recent paper in Nature Medicine, a forecasting team from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) ran five scenarios based on social distancing mandates and masking. Such predictions trend nationally, as well. If, however, Colorado residents improve transmission control in the coming weeks to reach 80 percent ( a level achieved over the summer), cumulative fatalities are projected at 5,500. But if social contacts increase and interactions were more risky before and through the holiday season, the model had earlier estimated as many as 17,500 virus-related deaths in the state by December 31. On November 4, based on the state’s then trajectory with 62 percent transmission control, the model projected that 8,500 Colorado residents will have died of COVID by the end of the year on November 20, with 65 percent transmission control, the model reduced that projection to 6,560. The most important variable is called “ transmission control,” which is defined as “the percent decrease in effective contacts between infected and susceptible individuals compared to pre-pandemic behavior.” This measure accounts for a wide range of behavioral and policy changes, which include wearing masks, physical distancing, moving activities outdoors, and contact tracing. To predict COVID transmission during the holidays, Colorado simulates several scenarios. And increasingly, they put a number on how these behaviors determine how many people will live or die. They all show with high degrees of certainty that masking and distancing save lives. Scientists have already begun incorporating various degrees of social distancing and mask use into their predictions of the pandemic’s course. The models have gotten more sophisticated and responsive during the course of the pandemic. But with winter and major holidays coming, will such measures be enough? That strategy helped some states mitigate their outbreaks through the summer. ![]() The Joint Committee on COVID-19 and Emergency Preparedness and Management plans a hearing next Thursday to examine the state of the pandemic in Massachusetts.As cases of COVID-19 surge to record levels across the United States, national public health advisors Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx have pushed for an approach that emphasizes intensive social distancing and widespread mask use, and many states are striving to slow the virus’s spread without resorting to complete lockdowns. Another 1,346,965 booster doses have been administered. The state reports 4,949,714 residents have been fully vaccinated with either two shots of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, or one shot of Johnson & Johnson, or about 70% of the total population. More than a third of the patients currently in the hospital with COVID-19, or 417, were fully vaccinated when they became infected, according to health officials. State health officials reported 12 new deaths on Wednesday, after reporting 51 deaths Tuesday, and the total confirmed deaths from the pandemic to date stand at 19,163. Hospitals have seen a nearly 134% increase in COVID-19 admissions over the past month, with 515 patients reported as hospitalized with the virus on Nov. ![]() The Baker administration has taken steps to address the overcrowding of hospitals by requiring providers with limited available bed capacity to curtail non-essential procedures. 23, with 120,207 new tests recorded on Wednesday. The 4.99% test positivity rate reported by the Department of Public Health is also as high as it's been since Jan. It now stands at 3,309, as high as it's been since late January. On June 25, the seven-day average of new cases was 64.1. Both cases were in fully vaccinated people and involved travel out of state. Massachusetts announced its first case Saturday afternoon, with Connecticut making its announcement later Saturday night. ![]()
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